Royal Caribbean Results

Royal Caribbean Reports Record 2019 Results, Provides 2020 Guidance And Introduces 20>25 By 2025 Program

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE: RCL) today reported 2019 US GAAP earnings of $8.95 per share and adjusted earnings of $9.54 per share and announced that 2020 adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range of $10.40 to $10.70 per share.  Given the fluidity of the circumstances related to the Wuhan Coronavirus and the actions being taken to contain its spread, the 2020 adjusted guidance provided herein does not include any financial impact related to this subject.  

In addition, the company today introduced its 20>25 by 2025 program which is designed to give people throughout the company specific goals to work towards.  The program includes several goals by 2025: delivering $20.00 adjusted earnings per share; further reducing the company's carbon footprint by 25%; delivering strong returns on invested capital; and continuing to improve on record guest satisfaction and employee engagement metrics.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Full Year 2019 results:

  • For the full year, US GAAP Net Income was $1.9 billion or $8.95 per share and Adjusted Net Income was $2.0 billion or $9.54 per share versus US GAAP Net Income of $1.8 billion or $8.56 per share and Adjusted Net Income of $1.9 billion or $8.86 per share in 2018.
  • Gross Yields were up 8.2% in Constant-Currency (up 7.0% As-Reported).  Net Yields were up 8.0% in Constant-Currency (up 6.7% As-Reported).
  • Gross Cruise Costs per Available Passenger Cruise Days ("APCD") increased 8.7% in Constant-Currency (up 8.0% As-Reported).  Net Cruise Costs ("NCC") excluding Fuel per APCD were up 11.4% in Constant-Currency (up 10.8% As-Reported).

Full Year 2020 guidance:

  • Wave season has started on a very robust basis with strong demand especially in the US and European markets.
  • As previously announced, the Wuhan Coronavirus and the efforts to contain it are expected to negatively affect our results. While we expect this to be temporary, the situation is highly fluid and the overall impact cannot reasonably be estimated at this time. Accordingly, our guidance does not include any provision for the impact of the outbreak. We will update our guidance as the situation stabilizes and we can reasonably estimate its impact.
  • Net Yields are expected to increase 2.25% to 4.25% in Constant-Currency and 2.5% to 4.5% As-Reported.
  • NCC excluding Fuel per APCD are expected to increase 1.75% to 2.25% in both Constant-Currency and As-Reported basis.
  • Adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range of $10.40 to $10.70 per share.

20>25 by 2025 Program:

These goals have been put in place to focus our leadership on achieving outsized improvements in our performance going forward.  We believe that what gets measured gets better and - just like the Double-Double program - we believe that this 20>25 by 2025 program will help focus our people on the key success factors for our future.  This program not only focuses on earnings and carbon footprint, it will also focus on further improving our guest satisfaction and employee engagement while continuing to deliver strong returns on invested capital.

"We are pairing ambitious business and environmental goals because we all understand that businesses must do our part to meet the needs of all our stakeholders," said Richard D. Fain, chairman and CEO.  "Over the last years, our people have worked hard to deliver strong performance on both profitability metrics and important societal goals.  This 20>25 by 2025 program should help take those efforts to the next level."

FULL YEAR 2019 RESULTS

US GAAP Net Income for the year was $1.9 billion or $8.95 per share and Adjusted Net Income was $2.0 billion or $9.54 per share.  This result was achieved despite a series of extraordinary events including the dry-dock incident in the Grand Bahama shipyard, the cancellation of the cruises to Cuba and an unusual hurricane season, all of which negatively impacted the company's results for the year.

Net Yields were up 8.0% in Constant-Currency.  The consolidation of Silversea's operations, the new cruise terminal in Miami, the Perfect Day development, new hardware and strong demand for our core products drove the year-over-year increase.

NCC excluding Fuel per APCD were up 11.4% in Constant-Currency.  The main drivers behind the year-over-year increase were the consolidation of Silversea's operations, the new cruise terminal in Miami, investments in our private destinations and technology, and more drydock days.

FOURTH QUARTER 2019 RESULTS

US GAAP Net Income for the fourth quarter was $273.1 million or $1.30 per share and Adjusted Net Income was $297.4 million or $1.42 per share.  Last year, US GAAP Net Income was $315.7 million or $1.50 per share, and Adjusted Net Income was $322.1 million or $1.53 per share.  The negative impact of the cancellation of the sailings to Cuba and the disruption generated by Hurricane Dorian were the main drivers of the decline in the year-over-year results during the quarter.

Gross Yields were up 6.2% in Constant-Currency.  Net Yields were up 6.8% in Constant-Currency, within guidance.

Gross Cruise Costs per APCD increased 9.6% in Constant-Currency.  NCC excluding Fuel per APCD were up 15.9% in Constant-Currency, higher than guidance driven by marine costs and employee related expenses.

Additionally, lower depreciation expenses and a higher contribution from our joint ventures positively impacted the quarter's performance vs. guidance.

Bunker pricing net of hedging for the fourth quarter was $468.4 per metric ton and consumption was 380,400 metric tons.

FULL YEAR 2020 GUIDANCE

The company is very encouraged about the demand environment for 2020.  Wave Season has started on a strong note with overall rates higher than same time last year and booked load factors ahead of same time last year on a like-for-like basis.  The company's new ships and new attractions are a major driver not only of revenue, but of the strength of its brands.

Demand for the core products is very strong across all quarters.  Recent geopolitical events such as the brushfires in Australia and unrest in the Middle East have impacted demand for certain itineraries, but the strength of the core products has more than compensated.

The company expects a Net Yield increase in the range of 2.25% to 4.25% in Constant-Currency and 2.5% to 4.5% As-Reported for the full year. 

The company is very excited about the introduction of four new ships during 2020.  These new ships will be important contributors to the yield growth and profitability.  The timing of the new ship deliveries will result in a more significant yield growth in the second half of the year than in the first half.

"Our yield outlook for 2020 is very encouraging with higher pricing on top of an exceptional 2019 performance," said Jason T. Liberty, executive vice president and CFO.  "It's clear that the Coronavirus will impact revenue in China in the short term, but we are a long-term business and our plans to continue growing this profitable market remain unchanged.   We are also very excited about the introduction of our 20>25 by 2025 goals.  Our formula for success is simple and our path towards our EPS goal is driven by moderately growing our yields, effectively managing our costs and moderately growing our business.  Meanwhile, our emissions target, which is one of our many sustainability initiatives, will further focus our world-class design, engineering and operations teams to meaningfully improve our environmental impact."

NCC excluding Fuel are expected to be up 1.75% to 2.25 % in both Constant-Currency and As-Reported basis.  Operating costs for the full year show continued good discipline, although the cadence of costs between quarters will vary.  Costs in the first half of the year are expected to be higher than the second half driven by more drydock days and the timing of ship deliveries.

Excluding any impact from the Coronavirus and taking into account current fuel pricing, interest rates, currency exchange rates and the factors detailed above, the company estimates 2020 Adjusted EPS will be in the range of $10.40 to $10.70 per share.

Coronavirus update

We have now cancelled 8 cruises out of China ending March 4th, and also modified certain itineraries in the region which overall have an estimated impact of $0.25 per share.

The company has also implemented several measures to protect guests and crew:

  1. Regardless of nationality, the company will deny boarding to any individual who has travelled from, to or through mainland China or Hong Kong in the past 15 days. These guests will receive full refunds.
  2. There will be mandatory specialized health screenings performed on:
    1. Guests who have been in contact with individuals who have traveled from, to or through mainland China or Hong Kong in the past 15 days;
    2. All holders of China or Hong Kong passports – regardless of when they were last in China or Hong Kong;
    3. Guests who report feeling unwell or demonstrate flu-like symptoms.
  3. These standards also apply to all employees, crew members and contractors of RCL

The company is assessing developments constantly and will update these measures as needed. 

There are still too many variables and uncertainties regarding this outbreak to calculate the impact on the business.  For example, we expect that an erosion of consumer confidence in China could have an additional impact on load factor and rate until the market normalizes.  If these travel restrictions and concerns over the outbreak continue for an extended period of time, they could have a material impact on the overall financial performance of the company.

FIRST QUARTER 2020 GUIDANCE

Net Yields are expected to be down approximately (0.5%) in Constant-Currency and down (0.5%) to (1.0%) As-Reported.  Demand for the core products and onboard experiences is very strong.  Nevertheless, the unprecedented bushfires in Australia, and recent activity in Hong Kong and the Middle East are each having a negative impact in the first quarter.  Moreover, the first quarter is also being negatively impacted by other structural elements such as the discontinuation of Cuba sailings which equals a revenue headwind of approximately 120 basis points, and a tough year-over-year comparable as we are lapping the inaugural seasons of two new ships during the first quarter of 2019.

NCC excluding Fuel per APCD for the quarter are expected to increase approximately 3.0% in both Constant-Currency and As-Reported basis. 

Based on current fuel pricing, interest rates, currency exchange rates and the factors detailed above, the company expects first quarter Adjusted EPS to be in the range of $0.80 to $0.85 per share.

FUEL EXPENSE AND SUMMARY OF KEY GUIDANCE STATS

Fuel Expense

The company does not forecast fuel prices and its fuel cost calculations are based on current at-the-pump prices, net of hedging impacts.  Based on today's fuel prices, the company has included $191 million and $744 million of fuel expense in its first quarter and full year 2020 guidance, respectively.

Forecasted consumption is 54% hedged via swaps for 2020 and 30%, 19% and 5% hedged for 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively.  For the same four-year period, the annual average cost per metric ton of the hedge portfolio is approximately $430, $463, $554 and $580, respectively.

The company provided the following fuel statistics for the first quarter and full year 2020

FUEL STATISTICS

First Quarter 2020

Full Year 2020

Fuel Consumption (metric tons)

375,200

1,534,300

Fuel Expenses

$191 million

$744 million

Percent Hedged (fwd. consumption)

62.0%

54.0%

The company provided the following guidance for the first quarter and full year 2020:

GUIDANCE

       As-Reported

Constant-Currency

First Quarter 2020

Net Yields

(0.5%) to (1.0%)

Approx. (0.5%)

Net Cruise Costs per APCD

Approx. 4.25%

Approx. 4.5%

Net Cruise Costs per APCD ex. Fuel

Approx. 3.0%

Approx. 3.0%

Full Year 2020

Net Yields

2.5% to 4.5%

2.25% to 4.25%

Net Cruise Costs per APCD

1.75% to 2.25%

1.75% to 2.25%

Net Cruise Costs per APCD ex. Fuel

1.75% to 2.25%

1.75% to 2.25%

GUIDANCE

First Quarter 2020   

Full Year 2020

Capacity Change

4.5%

4.8%

Depreciation and Amortization

$321 to $325 million

$1,376 to $1,392 million

Interest Expense, net

$85 to $89 million

$368 to $384 million

Adjusted EPS

$0.80 to $0.85

$10.40 to $10.70

SENSITIVITY

First Quarter 2020

Full Year 2020

1% Change in Currency

$4 million

$21 million

1% Change in Net Yields

$20 million

$91 million

1% Change in NCC ex Fuel

$12 million

$48 million

100 basis pt. Change in LIBOR

$7 million

$37 million

10% Change in Fuel prices

$9 million

$37 million

Exchange rates used in guidance calculations

GBP

$1.30

AUD

$0.69

CAD

$0.77

CNH

$0.15

EUR

$1.11

LIQUIDITY AND FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS

As of December 31, 2019, liquidity was $1.5 billion, including cash and the undrawn portion of the company's unsecured revolving credit facilities, net of our outstanding commercial paper borrowings.  The company noted that scheduled debt maturities (excluding commercial paper) for 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 are $1.2 billion, $0.8 billion, $2.5 billion, $0.8 billion and $0.7 billion, respectively.

CAPITAL EXPENDITURES AND CAPACITY GUIDANCE

Based upon current ship orders, projected capital expenditures for full year 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 are $4.7 billion, $3.5 billion, $3.6 billion and $2.9 billion, respectively.  Capacity changes for 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 are expected to be 4.8%, 6.4%, 9.3% and 4.1%, respectively.  These figures do not include potential ship sales or additions that we may elect to make in the future.

CONFERENCE CALL SCHEDULED

The company has scheduled a conference call at 10 a.m. Eastern Standard Time today to discuss its earnings.  This call can be heard, either live or on a delayed basis, on the company's investor relations website at www.rclinvestor.com.

Selected Operational and Financial Metrics

20>25 by 2025

Our 20>25 by 2025 Program refers to the multi-year program designed to communicate and motivate employees to work towards company specific goals.  The program includes several goals by 2025: delivering $20.00 adjusted earnings per share; further reducing the company's carbon footprint by 25% against a 2019 base; delivering strong returns on invested capital; and continuing to improve on record guest satisfaction and employee engagement metrics.

Adjusted Earnings per Share ("Adjusted EPS")

Represents Adjusted Net Income attributable to Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. divided by weighted average shares outstanding or by diluted weighted average shares outstanding, as applicable. We believe that this non-GAAP measure is meaningful when assessing our performance on a comparative basis.

Adjusted Net Income

Adjusted Net Income represents net income less net income attributable to noncontrolling interest excluding certain items that we believe adjusting for is meaningful when assessing our performance on a comparative basis. For the periods presented, these items included (i) costs, net of insurance recoveries, related to the Grand Bahama drydock structure incident involving Oasis of the Seas; (ii) our equity share of the write-off of the Grand Bahama drydock and other incidental expenses by Grand Bahama; (iii) the noncontrolling interest adjustment to exclude the impact of the contractual accretion requirements associated with the put option held by Heritage Cruise Holding Ltd.'s (previously known as  Silversea Cruises Group Ltd.) noncontrolling interest; (iv) the change in fair value in the contingent consideration related to the Silversea Cruises acquisition; (v) a loss on the early extinguishment of debt related to the repayment of certain loans; (vi) the amortization of the Silversea Cruises intangible assets resulting from the acquisition; (vii) integration costs related to the Silversea Cruises acquisition; (viii) transaction costs related to the Silversea Cruises acquisition; (ix) restructuring  charges incurred in relation to the reorganization of our international sales and marketing structure and other initiative expenses; (x) the impairment loss and other costs related to the exit of our tour operations business; (xi) the impairment loss related to Skysea Holding; and (xii) the impact of the change in accounting principle related to the recognition of stock-based compensation expense from the graded attribution method to the straight-line attribution method for time-based stock awards.

Available Passenger Cruise Days ("APCD")

APCD is our measurement of capacity and represents double occupancy per cabin multiplied by the number of cruise days for the period which excludes canceled cruise days and drydock days.  We use this measure to perform capacity and rate analysis to identify our main non-capacity drivers that cause our cruise revenue and expenses to vary.

Carbon Footprint

For purposes of the 20>25 by 2025 Program, the company's carbon footprint is measured as carbon intensity in kilograms of CO2e (Carbon dioxide equivalent) at double occupancy per cabin multiplied by distance in kilometers sailed. For consistent tracking over time, the base year metric may need to be recalculated if the company undergoes significant structural changes such as acquisitions, divestments, and mergers, in accordance with The Greenhouse Gas Protocol.

Constant-Currency

We believe Net Yields, Net Cruise Costs and Net Cruise Costs excluding Fuel are our most relevant non-GAAP financial measures.  However, a significant portion of our revenue and expenses are denominated in currencies other than the US Dollar.  Because our reporting currency is the US Dollar, the value of these revenues and expenses in US Dollars will be affected by changes in currency exchange rates.  Although such changes in local currency prices are just one of many elements impacting our revenues and expenses, it can be an important element.  For this reason, we also monitor Net Yields, Net Cruise Costs, and Net Cruise Costs excluding Fuel in "Constant-Currency" - i.e., as if the current period's currency exchange rates had remained constant with the comparable prior period's rates.  We calculate "Constant-Currency" by applying the average prior year period exchange rates for each of the corresponding months of the reported and/or forecasted period, so as to calculate what the results would have been had exchange rates been the same throughout both periods.  We do not make predictions about future exchange rates and use current exchange rates for calculations of future periods.  It should be emphasized that the use of Constant-Currency is primarily used by us for comparing short-term changes and/or projections.  Over the longer term, changes in guest sourcing and shifting the amount of purchases between currencies can significantly change the impact of the purely currency-based fluctuations.

Double-Double

Our Double-Double Program refers to the multi-year program completed in 2017 that was designed to help us better communicate and motivate our employees about our business goals by articulating longer-term financial objectives. Under the program, we targeted Adjusted EPS of $6.78 in 2017 (double our 2014 Adjusted EPS of $3.39) and ROIC of 10% in 2017 (compared to ROIC of 5.9% in 2014).

Gross Cruise Costs

Gross Cruise Costs represent the sum of total cruise operating expenses plus marketing, selling and administrative expenses.  For the periods presented, Gross Cruise Costs exclude (i) restructuring  charges incurred in relation to the reorganization of our international sales and marketing structure and other initiative expenses; (ii) transaction costs related to the Silversea Cruises acquisition; (iii) integration costs related to the Silversea Cruises acquisition; (iv) the impairment loss and other costs related to the exit of our tour operations business; and (v) the impact of the change in accounting principle related to the recognition of stock-based compensation expense from the graded attribution method to the straight-line attribution method for time-based stock awards, which were included within marketing, selling and administrative expenses.

Gross Yields

Gross Yields represent total revenues per APCD.

Net Cruise Costs ("NCC") and NCC excluding Fuel

Net Cruise Costs represent Gross Cruise Costs excluding commissions, transportation and other expenses and onboard and other expenses and, in the case of Net Cruise Costs Excluding Fuel, fuel expenses.   In measuring our ability to control costs in a manner that positively impacts net income, we believe changes in Net Cruise Costs and Net Cruise Costs Excluding Fuel to be the most relevant indicators of our performance. Net Cruise Costs and Net Cruise Costs Excluding Fuel exclude the costs, net of insurance recoveries, related to the Grand Bahama drydock structure incident involving Oasis of the Seas.

Net Revenues

Net Revenues represent total revenues less commissions, transportation and other expenses and onboard and other expenses.

Net Yields

Net Yields represent Net Revenues per APCD. We utilize Net Revenues and Net Yields to manage our business on a day-to-day basis as we believe that they are the most relevant measures of our pricing performance because they reflect the cruise revenues earned by us net of our most significant variable costs, which are commissions, transportation and other expenses and onboard and other expenses.

Occupancy

Occupancy, in accordance with cruise vacation industry practice, is calculated by dividing Passenger Cruise Days by APCD.  A percentage in excess of 100% indicates that three or more passengers occupied some cabins.

Passenger Cruise Days

Passenger Cruise Days represent the number of passengers carried for the period multiplied by the number of days of their respective cruises.



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